Aaron Schatz, chief Analytics Officer at For the Numbers and creator of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), has some concerns about the Ravens, but that doesn’t include tight end Isaiah Likely.
Here are five questions about the season:
1. How concerning is the Ravens’ offensive line with three new starters?
Schatz: It’s concerning. I think it’s the most concerning issue for the entire team. I will fully admit that picking up changes in the offensive line is probably the biggest weakness of our team projection system. However, the Ravens have always done a good job handling personnel changes, and I have some faith that both Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson can work around things a little bit to keep the offense vibrant.
2. What kind of impact will Derrick Henry have and can he carry the load for the entire season?
Schatz: I realize I’m in the minority here, but I don’t think Henry will have a huge impact. He’s good, but he’s no longer the real needle-mover at running back that he was in 2019 and 2020. He’s just one of many running backs and an aging one. The running game depends a lot more on the offensive line than it does on the running back.
3. What would be a solid year for Lamar Jackson for passing yards and touchdowns?
Schatz: I’m sure Jackson would like to match last year’s numbers, which weren’t superlative despite his MVP award. I would say 3,600 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns would be a solid year, as long as he’s also still running with the ball as much as he has in the past.
4. What difference can Isaiah Likely make in the offense?
Schatz: A big one. Likely ranked second in receiving DVOA among tight ends last season and the Ravens were second in the NFL in offensive DVOA from 12 personnel sets. The more the Ravens use 12 personnel with both Likely and Andrews, the more they don’t need to worry about questions regarding depth at the wide receiver position after Bateman and Flowers.
5. How concerning is the Ravens’ pass rush after losing Jadeveon Clowney?
Schatz: Clowney had his best year in quite some time, so that’s a loss, but I feel like the Ravens did a lot of manufacturing a pass rush with their blitzes, so I’m more concerned about the loss of [defensive coordinator] Mike Macdonald than I am the loss of Clowney.
